Latest from BCA Research
The outgoing Biden administration has launched a slew of macro-relevant executive orders and regulatory actions. The one with immediate macro implications are the sanctions against Russian oil traders and its “dark fleet” of oil tankers.
To kick start our new research agenda at Equity Analyzer, we welcome you to our weekly screener report. Each week we will deliver three screeners highlighting stocks exposed to various macro and investment views and themes, that have either been suggested by various BCA strategies, such as the Global Investment Strategy, or are based on research by the Equity Analyzer team. In our first installment, we take a look at US Tech stocks, equity sentiment, and quality "bubble" stocks.
UK and German bonds are victims of the global bond market riots. Will European yields continue to move higher and will the euro and the pound find a floor anytime soon?
Markets initially celebrated the election results, but the party was less festive than it was in 2016-17. The macro backdrop is not as forgiving for deportations, reflation and tariffs as it was eight years ago, and the incoming administration could face a rougher ride than it did in its first go-round.
The US High Quality (USHQ) portfolio significantly underperformed in December, returning -5.4%, whilst its SPY benchmark returned -2.8%. Through the final quarter of 2024, USHQ also underperformed vs. benchmark, returning just 0.26%. Though disappointing, with BCA’s house view still expecting a recession in 2025, USHQ is poised to claw back some losses vs. benchmark through 2025.
Thoughts on the increase in bond yields and this morning’s employment data.
Stocks have climbed the wall of worry and we are about to see what is on the other side (it won’t be pretty). We will be using our MacroQuant model to determine when to go maximally underweight equities.
In this week’s report, we look at the likely trend for bonds yields and the dollar in the coming months.
Every year we highlight five low-odds scenarios that would have a major impact on global financial markets if they happened. This year we contemplate a total reversal of Chinese policy, a US-Iran nuclear deal, a breakdown of NATO, US military action across the Americas, and an internationally coordinated FX intervention.