Insights

Earnings versus everything else has been an apt description for the macro backdrop during the conflict with Iran. Earnings growth has been red hot, but the Middle East was a mess, oil and other energy-related costs soared, bond yields surged and money markets priced in a central bank U-turn from cuts to hikes. Earnings have carried the day to this point, and we think the equity market has been right to follow them.

 Doug discussed the events that could shift the narrative while keeping tabs on the following key drivers:

• The labor market
• Consumption
• Inflation
• Monetary policy
• AI investment
• Portfolio positioning over 3- and 12-month timeframes

US Equity Strategy Webcast Series: Noah Holds Barred - Episode 3

Hosted By: Noah Weisberger, Chief US Equity Strategist

Moderated By: Jason Glazer, SVP, Sales

Key topics discussed:

• Sizing the coming IPO wave
• IPO expectations and market peaks – 40+ years of evidence
• What to expect from market and sector performance  
• Supply and demand  – the absorption question

Since 2018, we’ve published what we call “The Most Important of All Unimportant Forecasts” – applying the same macro framework we use for markets and the global economy to predict the World Cup. Now, what started as a one-off idea has become a tradition.

We hosted a webcast to walk through the making of the report – how the model has evolved, how we combine quantitative analysis with macro and narrative insights, and why football turns out to be a surprisingly good lens for top-down thinking.

We also shared our final tournament prediction – and attendees will hear it first.

What we covered:
•How the report started – and how it’s improved each cycle
•The blend of data, narrative, and macro behind the model
•Why football lends itself to a top-down framework
•Our final 2026 World Cup call (revealed live)

Please join Chief Strategists, Matt Gertken, Roukaya Ibrahim and Robert Timper for a Strait Talk Webcast.

Tuesday, June 2
11:00 AM EDT | 4:00 PM BST | 5:00 PM CEST

 Matt, Roukaya, and Robert will discuss:

• How the US and Iran will continue to negotiate even as they exchange military strikes.
• How a ceasefire through June and July may only partially restart shipping, but could delay inventory drawdowns in oil markets.
• How the outlook for the oil price impacts central bank policy and what this means for global bond yields.
• How gold should respond going forward, after a period of decline despite geopolitical crisis.

Please join Chief EM/China Strategist, Arthur Budaghyan for a Webcast.

Thursday, May 28
10:30 AM EDT | 3:30 PM BST | 4:30 PM CEST

Arthur will discuss:

• The Fed: Damned if it does, damned if it doesn’t
• Bessenomics upended?
• Get Out of the Dollar (G.O.D.) Thesis: paused, not reversed
• Unprecedented economic and market divergences
• Lessons from the 2000 tech bubble peak
• EM equities: A one-horse race
• Opportunities in EM fixed income and equities