Behind-the-scenes Ukraine peace negotiations suggest rising odds of a ceasefire, posing downside risks for European defense equities. Despite President Zelensky’s public rejection of the proposal, talks continue privately. The draft…
Negotiations on trade, Iran, and Ukraine will prove critical this month. Markets will remain volatile because positive data surprises enable the White House to press its hawkish tariff hikes, while negative surprises force the White…
Trump’s foreign policy can be explained by rational US interests, but it requires settling the trade war with allies sooner rather than later. Book gains on EUR-USD for now.
President Trump is negotiating a ceasefire in Ukraine. This will be a marginal headwind to some commodities which benefitted from the conflict like natural gas and wheat, and will be a marginal tailwind for European assets,…
Every year we highlight five low-odds scenarios that would have a major impact on global financial markets if they happened. This year we contemplate a total reversal of Chinese policy, a US-Iran nuclear deal, a breakdown of NATO, US…
Congress will pass tax cuts by end of 2025 producing a fiscal thrust of about 0.9% of GDP in 2026. Trump will count on that stimulus as a basis for slapping tariffs on leading trade partners.China will retaliate against Trump…
EM credit markets have recently defied the selloffs in EM equities, currencies, local currency bonds, and commodities. According to our Emerging Markets Strategy colleagues, such a decoupling is unusual. A potential Trump re-…
The global political system is destabilizing and the US will turn more hawkish in foreign policy, trade policy, or both, regardless of the election outcome. Tactically go long the dollar.
The war in Ukraine has ended in late 2022… for markets at least. This is the conclusion from our GeoMacro team’s latest report, which aims to dispel five crucial myths surrounding the conflict. The myths are the…
