President Trump said a partial federal government shutdown is "probably likely" late in the afternoon on September 30. Senators have until midnight to pass a continuing resolution already passed by the House that would keep the…
Will the US federal government shutdown on October 1? Congressional leaders are meeting with President Trump in the White House as we go to press. If eight Democratic senators do not vote with Republicans to pass a no-frills "…
Banxico cut rates to 7.5%, reinforcing our call to go long Mexican local bonds and overweight Mexico across EM portfolios. Inflation is within target, giving policymakers space to ease. Sound fiscal management and strong external…
Our US Political Strategists give a one-third probability of a federal government shutdown before November. The odds could increase after that. But the market impacts are limited. The source of the disagreement is the enhanced…
Indonesia’s policy easing will boost domestic demand, but fuel inflation. Current account deficit will widen, and the rupiah will weaken. Stay short the rupiah and go underweight Indonesian stocks, domestic bonds, and sovereign…
Despite the post-election selloff, investors should continue buying Argentine assets on weakness. Argentine markets sold off sharply after President Milei’s party suffered a crushing defeat in Sunday’s Buenos Aires election.…
In the Alpha report, we maintain our bullishness on the equity market. We are optimistic that the cash-fueled cycle will evolve into a leverage-driven one, with the AI capex cycle acting as the "bridge" between the two. Our view…
France’s renewed political turmoil highlights fiscal risks for OATs, but creates opportunities to buy French equities on dips. PM Bayrou has called a September 8 confidence vote over his deficit-cutting budget proposals,…
July data confirm China’s weak growth, with no near-term shift toward meaningful stimulus. New home prices fell 0.31% m/m, retail sales slowed to 3.7% y/y from 4.8%, and industrial production eased. Flooding in July disrupted…
India’s sharp CPI undershoot will bring forward rate cuts, supporting a long on local bonds. Headline CPI fell to 1.55%, well below the RBI’s 2-6% target range, pointing to earlier and deeper easing than markets price. Our…