Developed Countries
UK growth data continues to disappoint, making the case for a Gilts overweight and a dovish BoE. May GDP fell 0.1% m/m, missing estimates and marking a consecutive monthly contraction after April’s 0.3% decline. Industrial and manufacturing output both…
In this chartbook, we look at the balance of payments across DM and EM countries. The US does not fare well, but neither do a few other countries.
Rising continuing claims and slowing hiring momentum reinforce our defensive allocation stance. Continuing claims have reached a post-COVID high of 1.965m, while initial claims eased to 227k after peaking at 250k. The divergence between steadily rising…
Real yields remain near 2%, but structural asymmetries justify a duration overweight as inflation expectations stay anchored. US 10-year yields have been volatile, testing 4.80% in January and dropping below 4.0% after April’s Liberation Day. Meanwhile,…
The RBA’s surprise hold reinforces a slower easing path, warranting an underweight on Australian bonds. Markets had priced in a 25 bps cut, but the central bank opted to keep rates at 3.85%. Governor Bullock characterized the decision as a matter of timing,…
Japan’s improving growth momentum and structural inflation shift support an underweight in JGBs and long JPY positioning. The June Eco Watchers Survey was broadly in line with expectations, with current conditions ticking up to 45.0 and expectations modestly…
BCA’s Private Markets & Alternatives strategists recommend a balanced allocation across Public and Private Infrastructure, with near-term valuation favoring Public. Structural differences in index construction, sector mix, and regional exposure drive…
Markets are pricing a return to a neutral policy stance for the major central banks within the next 12 months. However, recession risks still loom amid slowing growth. We unpack where recession risks are underappreciated and what it means for bond positioning.
Labor market cracks reinforce long duration and steepener positioning as growth risks mount. Job market data has looked strong on the surface, but the details of the June employment and JOLTS reports confirm a slowing trend within the “low hiring, low firing”…