Strategy Insight

Full-Blown Mideast Crisis

31 Jul 2024

by Matt Gertken, Chief Geopolitical/US Political Strategist

The war in the Middle East is expanding, upgrading our subjective odds of a major oil supply shock to 37% and underscoring our 60% odds of Republican victory in November. Volatility should spike again as investors contemplate the prospect of rising oil prices amid slowing US and global growth. Tactically investors should stay overweight energy stocks relative to other cyclicals and favor oil producers in the Americas rather than Middle East.

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BCA Research | Geopolitical Strategy

The financial industry’s premier geopolitical research service. We use hard data to calculate scenario probabilities and market impacts for geopolitical risks and opportunities.