GeoMacro

Partisan redrawing of congressional districts will not prevent Democrats from retaking the House in the 2026 midterms. Neither will the Supreme Court's look at the Voting Rights Act.

What would “Old Man Partridge” say about the end of 2025? Risks are mounting everywhere one looks. The labor market is more than wobbly. The AI capex boom is a bubble, the front pages proclaim. And geopolitical tensions have been percolating throughout the year. The odds are that the venerable investor from the Reminiscences of a Stock Operator would cast a tired glance from behind his spectacles and utter, under his breath, “Well, you know this is a bull market.”

Special Report

US assets should benefit in the short run as investors recognize that US checks and balances still operate – and so does the election cycle.

Brazil’s bleak macro outlook persists – rising debt, weak productivity, and political inertia. With 2026 elections looming, genuine reform seems unlikely, though Argentina’s bold turnaround could pressure Brasília to rethink its cycle of governability over growth.

Détente between China and the US is a big deal. Economic data continues to give the Fed reasons to cut. What is there to be worried about? Very little. But we chew on some bearish thoughts as we start thinking about 2026.

The Trump-Xi summit continued the trade truce and tentatively created a framework to contain tensions over 2026. That is not a trade deal but it is good enough for global financial markets, especially Chinese assets.

President Javier Milei’s electoral win has massively outperformed expectations. Meaningful legislative support and renewed market confidence will revitalize his liberalizing economic program. Our recommendation not to sell Argentine assets following the post-Buenos Aires election carnage has been validated.

Special Report

US-China decoupling and rare-earth supply disruptions created a unique opportunity for non-Chinese miners and refiners to scale production and achieve profitability. The build-out will be lengthy, costly, and fraught with challenges, but government support materially improves the odds. Rare-earth production outside China is a nascent investment theme; we are structurally bullish and recommend building a position by buying on dips by investing in a diversified basket of miners, presented in the report.

Japan's first woman prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, will underperform on economic stimulus but outperform on defense spending and strategic diplomacy. Stay long Japanese yen.

Reduce risk exposure in the very near term as President Trump's ceasefire effort falters, Russia tensions spike, and US-China trade prospects suffer.