GeoMacro

Brazil’s bleak macro outlook persists – rising debt, weak productivity, and political inertia. With 2026 elections looming, genuine reform seems unlikely, though Argentina’s bold turnaround could pressure Brasília to rethink its cycle of governability over growth.

Détente between China and the US is a big deal. Economic data continues to give the Fed reasons to cut. What is there to be worried about? Very little. But we chew on some bearish thoughts as we start thinking about 2026.

The Trump-Xi summit continued the trade truce and tentatively created a framework to contain tensions over 2026. That is not a trade deal but it is good enough for global financial markets, especially Chinese assets.

President Javier Milei’s electoral win has massively outperformed expectations. Meaningful legislative support and renewed market confidence will revitalize his liberalizing economic program. Our recommendation not to sell Argentine assets following the post-Buenos Aires election carnage has been validated.

Special Report

US-China decoupling and rare-earth supply disruptions created a unique opportunity for non-Chinese miners and refiners to scale production and achieve profitability. The build-out will be lengthy, costly, and fraught with challenges, but government support materially improves the odds. Rare-earth production outside China is a nascent investment theme; we are structurally bullish and recommend building a position by buying on dips by investing in a diversified basket of miners, presented in the report.

Japan's first woman prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, will underperform on economic stimulus but outperform on defense spending and strategic diplomacy. Stay long Japanese yen.

Reduce risk exposure in the very near term as President Trump's ceasefire effort falters, Russia tensions spike, and US-China trade prospects suffer.

Silver’s short squeeze and stretched technicals warn of a potential tactical pullback.

The denizens of GeoMacro strategy have remained bullish into October, despite our gut telling us that the equity rally has overextended itself on a technical basis. On cue, markets ripped our face off with a single missive from the Twitterer-in-Chief. While we scoff at the idea that the President will raise tariffs on China by 100%, the speed of the unwind of the "everything trade" that Friday suggests that market dynamics are not great.

President Trump has threatened to cancel his planned meeting with President Xi Jinping on October 31 in South Korea at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. Responding to the October 9 announcement by Beijing that it was imposing new restrictions on refined rare earth minerals – and technology used to refine them – President Trump suggested that a massive increase in tariffs on China may be coming. Markets have reacted sharply to President Trump’s rhetoric, with a significant selloff in stocks.