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The combination of dollar weakness and rising US yields suggests global investors are questioning the safe-haven status of US Treasuries.
Today, we publish our Quarterly Model Bond Portfolio report. We discuss how the trade war has further increased the global recession risk, but US Treasuries could underperform their global peers in the near term. We cover the fixed income investment implications in the short run and which bond markets are poised to outperform in a severe economic downturn.
Commodity prices are succumbing to the risk-off environment triggered by President Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement. The latest events and market moves raise several important questions about the outlook for commodity markets. In this Strategy Report we address some of the most pressing questions raised during our recent discussions.
This report looks at the FX implications of the Trump tariffs, and the review of our Q1 trades.
The March employment report showed strong job growth, but the labor market remains in a fragile state and the demand shock from tariffs could be the catalyst that tips it over the edge into recession.
In this month’s Beta report, we continue our series supporting our bullish thesis on Europe. We take a deep dive into the aftermath of the European energy crisis – dispelling the myth that Europe faces risks of imminent deindustrialization – and evaluate the impact the approaching LNG wave will have on European industry and the global natural gas market.
Corporate bond spreads are tight around the globe and do not adequately compensate for the risk of a deterioration in credit quality. We examine the global corporate credit landscape to identify which markets are best equipped to perform in the current environment.
This report looks at investment implications, for Norwegian assets, given the recent meeting, from the Norges Bank.
This morning’s weak consumer spending and strong inflation data reinforce our sense that the US economy is heading toward recession.