FICC

Measures of labor market utilization improved in December, ruling out a January cut and significantly reducing the odds of a March cut.

Venezuelan crude output is unlikely to alter the global oil market outlook for this year. However, US control of Venezuelan crude is a risk to Canadian oil sands producers and Canadian oil prices. Go long US oil refiners/short Canadian oil producers.

With FX volatility near cycle lows, this Insight examines where positioning has become most stretched across G10, EM FX, and precious metals – and what that implies for near-term moves and reversal risks.

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for January 2026.

From steepening to flattening. As the BoJ continues to tighten in 2026, we show why curve flatteners are finally the right trade.

The forces that have recently propelled aluminum prices will remain supportive over the near term. However, beyond the coming months, aluminum prices will retreat as bearish cyclical pressures overwhelm over the course of 2026.

Special Report

Our outlook for Fed policy in 2026.

Special Report

The dollar enters 2026 on the edge of a structural decline. Our FX Key Views report maps the valuation, flow, and policy pressures that could finally trigger a sustained downtrend – and where the trade opportunities lie.

Special Report

Every year, the Global Asset Allocation team compiles a list of our favorite books, essays, and articles from our strategists ahead of the holiday season. This year, we focus on writings by practitioners in the world of finance, business, and beyond. While diverse in their backgrounds, one theme stands out: Adaptation.

Employment Data Point To Dovish Policy Surprises In 2026