Essentials

This series brings together five reports on corporate profitability across the US, Europe, Japan, China, and EM. The findings reveal a structurally desynchronized nature between regional corporate profitability. This is critical to alpha generation.

History suggests central bank policy determines how bonds behave in recessions, even for high-debt countries. The Fed should be able to cut into a slowdown, making Treasurys an effective equity hedge… for USD-based investors. Foreign investors will see currency depreciation erase their gains.

Labor supply is not meaningfully boosting inflation today, but the net exit of unauthorized immigrants has lowered the bar for stronger labor demand to turn inflationary. Hawkish monetary policy surprises over the coming year are possible.

Special Report

Inflation, not valuation, is the real threat to this bull market. This four-report series lays out where BCA's strategists agree, where they don't, and what to watch for next.

Special Report

In this report, Martin Barnes, BCA’s Emeritus Chief Economist, reflects on the rise in US government debt, dollar strength, and profit margin expansion that has occurred over the past 25 years. He argues that these trends are unsustainable and are bound to reverse within the next few years.

Section I outlines BCA’s views on the US-Iran conflict, Europe’s near-term outlook, the currency and bond selloffs in Japan and the early days of the Warsh Fed. In Section II, Roukaya, Matt, and Artem argue that the worst of gold's downturn is likely behind us. Real rates and the dollar — which have reasserted themselves as gold's primary drivers — are set to shift from headwinds to tailwinds for the metal.

Special Report

In this Special Report we argue that the worst of gold's downturn is likely behind us. Real rates and the dollar — which have reasserted themselves as gold's primary drivers — are set to shift from headwinds to tailwinds for the metal.

Special Report

After an exciting group stage, we discuss the trends that have shaped the tournament and update our 2026 World Cup prediction.

Special Report

China holds a structural advantage in this "Age of Electricity" by operating the world's largest electricity system. However, this advantage has inherent limits, and the US remains competitive despite its challenges.

The US-Iran deal is a marginal improvement in global commodity supply risk, but we still give a 60% chance of renewed fighting later this year or in 2027.