Thanks to the tight monetary and fiscal policies so far, inflation and growth are heading lower in Turkey. Buy 2-year local currency bonds, currency unhedged. Also, upgrade Turkey's domestic bonds from neutral to overweight and stocks from underweight to neutral within their respective EM portfolios...
U.S. copper tariffs will redirect the metal’s trade flows from the US to the rest of the world, replenishing depleted inventories abroad. With global copper demand set to soften in H2, the red metal will likely face downward price pressure outside the US. Stay long gold / short LME copper, and initi...
Banks have had a strong run and may continue to outperform, supported by a rebound in capital market activity, improving momentum in the core banking business, and the potential for rerating driven by deregulation. While risks remain, we remain cautiously optimistic....
This insight gives life to four high-conviction views on European small caps, aero¬space & defense, banks, and telecoms by harnessing the power of BCA’s Equity Analyzer (EA)....
EUR/JPY has reached stretched levels, prompting new short trade recommendations across BCA Strategies. The calls are underpinned by compelling valuation, macro, and technical signals....
Our latest report analyzes home bias in bonds and equities across 15 countries. The verdict? Hedged international bonds outperform domestic peers, especially during high inflation. In equities, even top markets like the US have had multi-year periods of underperformance. Allocators should leave patr...
Global investors should keep an open mind regarding global trade and whether "Cold War II" is taking shape. Today's international context is different from that of the original Cold War, but economic integration has declined and could well continue to decline if the great powers do not manage their ...
The fact that the US economy has been slower to deteriorate than in past cycles is entirely consistent with our kinked Phillips curve framework. We will be looking to our MacroQuant model for guidance on when to turn fully defensive....
Jay Powell won’t be removed as Fed Chair before the expiry of his term next May, but we will learn the identity of his replacement this year, setting up a potentially awkward “shadow Fed Chair” situation....
US equity investors should heed warning signals from US corporate bond yields. There are early red flags for EM share prices. Global trade will shrink in H2 2025. China’s economic tailwinds from H1 2025 – fiscal and export frontloading – are coming to an end....
