The spike in oil and gas prices has raised the odds of a global economic downturn. Combined with a more negative signal from our MacroQuant model, this warrants tactically downgrading stocks from neutral to underweight. Looking further ahead, the Iran war will lead to bigger defense budgets and a gr...
The Iran war remains a terms-of-trade shock rather than a classic flight to safety – for now. As oil risks skew higher, policy repricing and growth differentials should continue to favor a tactical rebound in the USD....
Oil prices will likely rise in the near term, irrespective of developments in the Strait of Hormuz. Given that global share prices have become correlated with crude prices, global stocks will continue selling off. Go short the EM equity index and take profits on our open trades that have benefited f...
This report unpacks this year’s uneventful NPC, reading the tea leaves of key messages and offering insights on the impact of rising oil prices on China....
Drone and ballistic missile attacks were slowing, as of March 11. Air traffic in the region was also slowly recovering, as the pace of attacks declined. Warning, however: Reports from US CENTCOM and the IDF claim that Iran still has around 40% to 50% of its stockpile of missiles and launchers. Attac...
In the ongoing Middle East crisis, anti-fragile markets will remain relatively resilient while fragile markets will break. We describe how to draw the distinction. Plus, a new trade is a 50:50 combination of long USD/MXN and overweight Consumer Discretionary....
Private Credit, Software, Iran, Trump – important headlines, but the opportunity lies elsewhere. In this edition of the Public Versus Private series, we do things a little differently. We focus exclusively on US Sunbelt Multifamily, a perennial area of global investor interest. We favor Public REITs...
Momentum behind nuclear energy is accelerating, yet financing remains the critical constraint. In this Special Report, we examine how evolving taxonomies and green bond frameworks are reshaping access to sustainable capital and assess whether they can meaningfully support the revival of nuclear ener...
