Insights

Although the multi-decade surge in the value of households’ equity holdings has made US activity more vulnerable to a stock selloff, the latest income, spending and employment data suggest that consumption growth can carry on at a 2% inflation-adjusted pace....

The US High Quality (USHQ) portfolio outperformed its benchmark through May, returning 3.88%, while its SPY benchmark returned 2.25%. On a trailing three-month basis, the USHQ portfolio’s performance was weaker than the benchmark, with USHQ underperforming by approx. 86bps....

The AI boom will increase inflation in the near term and could also raise it over the long term. The Fed’s reluctance to hike rates is understandable, but it risks amplifying what may already be a brewing stock market bubble. ...

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for June 2026....

The magnitude of US tech/AI capital spending already rivals past bubble thresholds, threatening hyperscalers’ future returns on capital. There are echoes of previous market tops. Our preferred overlay strategy for equity portfolios remains long semiconductor producers / short hyperscalers....

Four years after correctly calling Argentina's triumph, the Most Important of all Unimportant Forecasts returns. Who does our model crown in 2026? Let's find out....

Bears will fold like lawn chairs this summer as traffic returns to Hormuz, allowing markets to overcome seasonal malaise. But we are starting to see how the expansion ends. A macro brew of global central bank tightening due to stickier-than-expected inflation, negative second derivative in AI capex,...

The rally in Colombia’s financial markets has a short shelf life. The election will bring a right-wing government, but it cannot fix inflation, fiscal arithmetic, or balance-of-payments vulnerabilities. Use the near-term rally to downgrade Colombian fixed income and equities....

Copper prices are surging again after a brief pullback in the first quarter. What is driving the renewed strength, and can it persist?...

The US economy is moving back toward Expansion, supported by strong investment, improving earnings, and record margins. We are taking profits on our tactical Software long after achieving our target and rotating into Materials, where commodity strength and earnings momentum continue to support the s...