Europe faces a difficult macro backdrop, but whether it slips into recession remains finely balanced. We present two perspectives before translating them into investment implications....
Global equities have reached extremes on multiple measures, none of which are reliable timing tools. But imbalances in economics and investing can build for far longer than rational analysis would predict - and usually unravel much faster than investors expect....
Most Fed and pundit assessments of inflation expectations are overly narrow, focusing too much on long-term market-based measures. We favor a more qualitative approach that asks whether the inflation outlook is influencing household and business decision making....
The Strait of Hormuz is a unique geographical feature. Other than the Bosporus and Dardanelles Straits that allow passage between the Mediterranean and the Black Sea (via the Sea of Marmara), there are very few other such, economically valuable, choke points. What many armchair geopolitical strategi...
As long as the AI boom keeps booming, all other investment considerations will remain on the back burner. However, if the AI trade fizzles, this would expose deep-seated problems within the global economy, which could very well lead to an economic downturn as early as next year....
China's economy is slowing, but policymakers are unlikely to launch broad-based stimulus in H2. Meanwhile, the emergence of China's "Kimi moment" underscores Beijing's commitment to technological upgrading and the country's rapidly advancing AI capabilities....
The Supreme Court, Senate, Fed, and other institutions have proved resilient so far under the Trump administration. US institutional erosion is overstated....
In this Strategy Insight, we assess how Middle East-related energy and shipping disruptions are shaping the global inflation outlook and review the implications for inflation-linked bond markets. We also examine the outlook for core inflation and the resulting implications for central bank policy an...
News flash: Young urban professionals are not gasping under the weight of an impossible rent burden. Investors should not be led astray by lightly examined popular narratives....
In our last update on the Iran-US conflict, we noted that both sides in the conflict (all three, if we include Israel) were “coloring inside the lines.” By that we meant that they were abiding by the “red lines” of kinetic activity established in the heat of the first iteration of the Iran conflict....
