Insights

The S&P 500 has become increasingly concentrated. We know that. But the critical question is not how many stocks are driving the market; it is how many factors are driving stocks. We define an AI risk factor to test whether AI has become the dominant common exposure throughout much of the factor...

Our EM strategists view Korea’s equity tantrum as a warning for global risk assets and recommend taking profits and downgrading Korean stocks. Korea has become the most extreme expression of the global equity rally, driven by semiconductor momentum, high-beta exposure, and rampant retail speculation...

Our US Equity strategists are raising their 2026 S&P 500 target to 8100 from 7700. The increase is driven by a higher EPS forecast as the economy re-accelerates and earnings broaden beyond a narrow set of hyperscalers. The upgrade reflects a stronger-than-expected first quarter and an improving ...

Our Geopolitical strategists see the DRC Ebola outbreak as a low-probability but high-consequence supply-chain risk. The country holds a critical position in global copper and, especially, cobalt production. Our colleagues expect the outbreak to stay contained and not morph into a global pandemic, b...

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh wants to make Fed-watching great again. The Warsh Fed will speak less and guide less. There is, however, an important nuance to the communication changes so far. While explicit guidance was removed, some implicit guidance remains, as inflation was prioritized over employmen...

The USD has moved sideways this year, but its behavior has become more defensive since the Iran war began. After fears of a USD “exodus” last year, the dollar has instead acted as a safe-haven during the Iran war. The DXY’s correlation with implied volatility has also increased since the start of th...

Mixed labor and inflation data should create a window for the Warsh Fed to keep rates on hold. We recently highlighted an important nuance to the communication changes so far: explicit guidance is removed, yet implicit guidance remains. The Warsh Fed will also aim to take more guidance from markets....

After an exciting group stage, we discuss the trends that have shaped the tournament and update our 2026 World Cup prediction....

How should I hedge my portfolio for the next bear market? This is a question many of our clients face, and one that investors too often answer on the basis of intuition or narrative. The All-Defense Chartpack aims to provide a solid starting point for that analysis, grounded in empirical data. It ex...