Markets and forecasters anticipate a “Golden Age” for Trump’s America, with US growth expectations soaring while the rest of the world lags. However, this extreme optimism means that there is a lot of room for disappointment. Cooling income growth, weak housing and less deficit spending than expecte...
The latest version of the MacroQuant model suggests that the bull market in US stocks is winding down. The model expects Treasury yields to fall later this year but is not ready to go long duration just yet....
The latest version of the MacroQuant model suggests that the bull market in US stocks is winding down. The model expects Treasury yields to fall later this year but is not ready to go long duration just yet....
China barely hit its growth target in 2024 by shifting back to its old model of exports, racking up a record trade surplus with the world – right as Donald Trump walks back into the White House. Tariffs will elicit larger fiscal stimulus even as China rolls out innovations such as DeepSeek to meet i...
Core PCE inflation came in soft this morning and is tracking well below the Fed’s 2025 forecast. We highlight three upside risks to inflation and preview next week’s employment report....
Asset class expectations show mixed shifts from 2024, with Real Estate seeing substantial upgrades and Private Equity benefiting from Venture Capital improvements. Private Credit return expectations decline from 2024 but remain relatively attractive. Infrastructure shows varied dynamics across sub-s...
The ECB cut its deposit rate to 2.75%, as was widely anticipated. President Christine Lagarde did not provide any fireworks, but the Governing Council’s message was clear: Policy is restrictive, and inflation will fall further. As a result, if we combine our economic forecasts for the Eurozone with ...
In Section I, Doug highlights that recent trade developments and news from the AI space are both consistent with a conservative investment stance. US final demand was robust in Q4, but the economy is still walking a tightrope as cracks in the labor market emerge. It is possible that an unorthodox se...
