China Geopolitical Outlook 2025

31 Jan 2025

by Yushu Ma, Associate Editor Matt Gertken, Chief Geopolitical/US Political Strategist

China barely hit its growth target in 2024 by shifting back to its old model of exports, racking up a record trade surplus with the world – right as Donald Trump walks back into the White House. Tariffs will elicit larger fiscal stimulus even as China rolls out innovations such as DeepSeek to meet its 2025 industrial goals, creating a volatile mix this year.

Interested in reading this report?

To access the full BCA Research report, request a complimentary copy

BCA Research | Geopolitical Strategy

The financial industry’s premier geopolitical research service. We use hard data to calculate scenario probabilities and market impacts for geopolitical risks and opportunities.