Cybersecurity is a strategic investment theme, which looks particularly interesting in light of the trade war and heightened geopolitical tensions. It is less exposed to tariffs than other industries and, if anything, benefits from geopolitical tensions as customers seek protection from internationa...
Are bunds the new Treasurys? The euro and German debt are gaining favor as safe havens, but markets may be overplaying the shift. Our latest report dissects what's durable, what's not, and how to trade the dislocation....
US Treasuries typically outperform both equities and global government bonds during downturns. Recent political shifts could lessen that outperformance this cycle, but we doubt it will disappear completely....
Do not play the bounce in US and global cyclical assets as Trump backpedals from the trade war. China will talk, but the pace will be slow and the outcome disappointing. Fiscal stimulus will surprise marginally in the EU, China, and even the US, but still may not rescue the business cycle....
Although the sell-off in the US dollar and relative outperformance of non-US stocks will pause over the coming months as a global recession begins, the fading of US exceptionalism will still cause the dollar to weaken and US stocks to underperform over a multi-year horizon....
This report is an edited transcript of our recent conversation with Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, who visited our office to discuss the rapidly evolving economic outlook. The US and global economies are likely to enter a recession this year barring a decisive tariff reversal or the passage of signi...
Bessenomics has failed so far. The key pillars of Bessent’s policy mix – achieving lower interest rates and robust economic growth – have been severely jeopardized. The US dollar has depreciated for different reasons than Bessent had envisioned and has pushed up long-term US bond yields. A trade dea...
Soft data continues to deteriorate and hard data will soon follow, reinforcing our defensive asset allocation. Consumer and business confidence have plunged as policy uncertainty and inflation expectations rise, with spending, hiring and capex plans softening. March retail sales were decent but mixe...
Amid the storm of global financial uncertainty, Argentina stands out as a free-market safe haven. The lifting of currency controls was the last step taken by this country to embrace market mechanisms. We recommend that investors buy Argentine equities, sovereign credit, and domestic bonds, and overw...
