A Spring Visit From Mr. And Ms. X

This report is an edited transcript of our recent conversation with Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, who visited our office to discuss the rapidly evolving economic outlook. The US and global economies are likely to enter a recession this year barring a decisive tariff reversal or the passage of significant fiscal stimulus. Even the latter is not clearly bullish for stocks, as it risks a stagflationary outcome. Investors should be underweight stocks versus bonds and should respond to clear signs of stagflation by lowering fixed-income portfolio duration. We continue to recommend defensive equity sector positioning, an overweight stance toward value stocks, an underweight stance toward small caps, and gold over cyclically sensitive commodities.