For now, measures of labor market utilization (like the unemployment rate) are only gradually weakening. But we know from history that these trends have a habit of quickly accelerating in advance of recession....
This week our three screeners explore equity trades in gold mining stocks, European banks, and US stocks ex-Tech should a recession not be imminent....
Unlike in past episodes, US dollar weakness will be deflationary, not reflationary, for the rest of the world. In this context, EM local currency bonds offer a superior risk-reward profile. Stay long domestic bonds in select EM countries....
The ECB is changing its tone, but don’t call it a pivot. Slower cuts, sticky disinflation, and a soft growth patch shift the opportunity set. We break down the tactical bond trades and why EUR/USD dips are still for buying....
India's IT service exports have been booming and will continue to do so despite wider AI usage. Indian IT stocks, however, will not benefit from it as the expanding Global Capability Centers (GCCs) in India compete with the nation’s IT companies, driving the latter's profitability down....
I am a structural disbeliever in the US superstar stocks because these winners of the previous technology, Web 2.0, are unlikely all to be the winners of the latest technology, AI. But I would suspend my disbelief if the Magnificent-7 index reaches a new high and the bursting AI-bubble configuration...
The US High Quality (USHQ) portfolio underperformed its benchmark through May, returning 5.1%, whilst its SPY benchmark returned 6.1%. On a trailing three-month basis, performance is also slightly weaker vs. benchmark, with USHQ underperforming by approx. 130bps. Notably, volatility and drawdown rem...
In our Beta report, we focus on our decade view. Many of our global allocator clients are scrambling to incorporate geopolitics into their strategic asset allocation. For most, this means thinking about war… or about future end-states. This is a mistake. We consider the next five years (maybe a deca...
This month, we focus on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). Our assessment in the Alpha report is that there won’t be any remaining alpha to harvest by shorting duration. The team that coined the “Human Steepener” moniker for President Trump is, effectively, throwing in the towel on looking for ...
