Insights
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Since 2018, we’ve published what we call “The Most Important of All Unimportant Forecasts” – applying the same macro framework we use for markets and the global economy to predict the World Cup. Now, what started as a one-off idea has become a tradition.
We hosted a webcast to walk through the making of the report – how the model has evolved, how we combine quantitative analysis with macro and narrative insights, and why football turns out to be a surprisingly good lens for top-down thinking.
We also shared our final tournament prediction – and attendees will hear it first.
What we covered:
•How the report started – and how it’s improved each cycle
•The blend of data, narrative, and macro behind the model
•Why football lends itself to a top-down framework
•Our final 2026 World Cup call (revealed live)
Please join Chief Strategists, Matt Gertken, Roukaya Ibrahim and Robert Timper for a Strait Talk Webcast.
Tuesday, June 2
11:00 AM EDT | 4:00 PM BST | 5:00 PM CEST
Matt, Roukaya, and Robert will discuss:
- How the US and Iran will continue to negotiate even as they exchange military strikes.
- How a ceasefire through June and July may only partially restart shipping, but could delay inventory drawdowns in oil markets.
- How the outlook for the oil price impacts central bank policy and what this means for global bond yields.
- How gold should respond going forward, after a period of decline despite geopolitical crisis.
Please join Chief EM/China Strategist, Arthur Budaghyan for a Webcast.
Thursday, May 28
10:30 AM EDT | 3:30 PM BST | 4:30 PM CEST
Arthur will discuss:
- The Fed: Damned if it does, damned if it doesn’t
- Bessenomics upended?
- Get Out of the Dollar (G.O.D.) Thesis: paused, not reversed
- Unprecedented economic and market divergences
- Lessons from the 2000 tech bubble peak
- EM equities: A one-horse race
- Opportunities in EM fixed income and equities
Chief Strategists Matt Gertken and Roukaya Ibrahim and Jesse Kuri discussed:
- Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping agreed to expand their trade truce, as both face challenges, not least in the Strait of Hormuz.
- But China is not yet willing to apply pressure on Iran to enable shipping to resume in the strait. Only the US and Iran have the physical power necessary to resume shipping.
- Trump's attempt to negotiate a quick deal with Iran has not borne fruit, though negotiations are not yet dead.
- Faltering diplomacy implies a new round of hostilities over the coming days and weeks.
- Hormuz is likely to remain shut and attacks will likely increase over the coming month.
- In late June the world will start to hit constraints from physical oil inventory drawdowns.
- The global economy will increasingly see demand destruction as a result of elevated commodity prices.
- Global financial markets are increasingly disconnected from the underlying threat to the economy.
Jeremie and Robert discussed:
- Has the energy shock caused irreversible damage to the European economy?
- Central banks so far refrained from hiking. Will they continue to stay put?
- How is the energy shock affecting Europe relative to the US? What are the equity, fixed income, and currency implications?