Financial Markets
MacroQuant is tactically overweight equities, favors an above-benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios, remains bearish on the US dollar, and is bullish on gold and copper.
The rush to build AI infrastructure is based on a false premise: that there are significant advantages to being the first to come to market.
Precious metals, corporate credit, and tech stocks are all showing signs of late-cycle euphoria. We identify various trigger points that investors should monitor to turn more bearish.
In this Q4 Strategy Outlook, we discuss where we stand on our recession call, the outlook for stocks and bonds in various scenarios, why investors are misunderstanding the impact of AI on corporate profits, whether the US dollar has entered a structural downtrend, our perspective on the yen, gold and other commodities, and much more.
World War III will not happen. But if you disagree, here is our portfolio to hedge it: commodities, neutrals, and crypto.
The AI capex boom is having a measurable impact on the economy but, so far, it is more muted than often cited.
