Essentials

Special Report

AI could be as transformative as the Agricultural or Industrial Revolutions. However, the fact that you are reading these words at the dawn of the AI age hints at a darker possibility, which is that AI will lead to humanity's demise. Fortunately, the most straightforward interpretation of quantum mechanics suggest you will only be conscious in those timelines where the world survives.

Special Report

A market becomes inefficient, illiquid, and vulnerable to a phase transition when the ‘wisdom of crowds’ switches to the ‘madness of crowds.’ This switch from market wisdom to market madness may be the most significant recurring behavioural opportunity in active fund management and can be exploited in real-time by measuring the market’s complexity.

Bank Credit Analyst

In Section I, Doug compares projected S&P 500 earnings and current capex to past cycles at the same stage of their expansions while also exploring the K-shaped bifurcation in business investment. In Section II, Mathieu argues that Australia and Canada are unloved, undervalued, and on the cusp of a structural re-rating. Long-term investors who wait for the catalysts to become obvious will miss the entry point.

Special Report

This Special Report argues that Australia and Canada are unloved, undervalued, and on the cusp of a structural re-rating. Long-term investors who wait for the catalysts to become obvious will miss the entry point.

Most of the increase in S&P 500 earnings estimates this year has stemmed from shortages. The oil shortage, which has pushed up estimates for energy companies, will fade once the military conflict is resolved. However, the shortage of semiconductors and other AI paraphernalia could persist for a while longer. As such, we are moving our recommended 12-month equity allocation from a slight underweight to neutral. We are already neutral on a 3-month horizon.

We do not expect the oil shock to have a lasting effect on inflation. Looking further out, a variety of structural forces will influence inflation, including fiscal policy, globalization, demographics, and AI.

Bank Credit Analyst

In Section I, Doug argues that investors should maintain mildly defensive positioning while awaiting the restoration of normalized shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz. In Section II, Jonathan examines the humanoid robot segment of the emerging physical AI landscape, concluding that humanoid robots are a potential but not yet imminent investment theme.

Bank Credit Analyst

In Section II, Jonathan examines the humanoid robot segment of the emerging physical AI landscape, concluding that humanoid robots are a potential but not yet imminent investment theme.

Higher oil prices threaten the global economy, warranting an underweight stance on equities. Over the long haul, industrial metals will fare better than crude.

Bank Credit Analyst

Overnight, the Israeli military reported that it managed to kill two high-profile Iranian leaders: the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council and the leader of the internal paramilitary group, the Basij. Meanwhile, the Gulf States reported more interceptions of drones and missiles from Iran.