There is a thin line between geopolitical risk and Enlightenment, just ask Europe in the seventeenth century. The Middle East is exhibiting both. Investors are over-indexing on the negative – which has not impacted the investible universe – and ignoring the positives....
The US economy is not in recession, but is suffering from a post-pandemic stimulus hangover. The cure: lower interest rates. We expect the Fed to start lowering rates, which will benefit both equities and bonds. We upgrade stocks to neutral and downgrade cash to underweight. We also upgrade duration...
MacroQuant’s US equity z-score is dangerously close to the -1 threshold. Moves below that threshold have reliably coincided with equity bear markets in the past. As such, MacroQuant recommends an underweight on stocks, offset by an overweight on bonds and cash....
Our Special Report is a graphical comparison of the consumer’s position in the current cycle to every cycle from 1960 forward. The bad news is that disposable income is increasingly reliant on government transfers and the labor market is softening. The good news is that the balance sheets of househo...
The Life and Health Insurance industry offers downside protection and portfolio diversification in the event of a market correction, surging inflation, or stubbornly high interest rates....
This week our three screeners explore: UK stocks that are cheap and offer a geopolitical hedge; French stocks that are sensitive to China; and US Value and dividend paying stocks....
The Treasury/OIS spread has exerted notable upward pressure on Treasury yields during the past year, but the factors driving the spread are now turning more favorable....
Investors should modestly underweight equities in their portfolios and look to turn more aggressively defensive once the whites of the recession’s eyes are visible. We think that will happen within the next few months....
In Section I, Doug underscores that the full weight of tariffs has yet to be felt on the US and global economies, against the dangerous backdrop of a softening labor market. In Section II, Jonathan presents the bullish case for the US dollar over the coming year....
