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Economy

In Section I, Doug highlights that benchmark positioning in equities, fixed income and cash is now recommended. Still, the US macro situation warrants continual monitoring, given weakening labor market momentum. In Section II, Jonathan shows how valuation-adjusted fundamental momentum has been a successful tool for ranking global sectors.

In Section II, Jonathan shows how valuation-adjusted fundamental momentum has been a successful tool for ranking global sectors.

Our tactical framework, which tracks the reflexive loop between financial conditions and economic surprises, points to stronger near-term growth, leaving equities vulnerable if inflation re-accelerates. Data surprises move markets, while bond yields and the…
August core durable goods orders beat estimates, but weak shipments and survey data reinforce our modestly defensive stance. Core orders rose 0.6% m/m against expectations of a modest decline, though they decelerated from July’s downwardly revised 0.8% gain.…
Australian inflation surprised higher in August, validating the RBA’s cautious stance and supporting an underweight on ACGBs. Headline CPI rose to 3.0% y/y from 2.8%, the highest in a year and at the top of the RBA’s 2-3% target range. While the central bank…

This week’s US Bond Strategy Special Report takes a look at the two most provocative papers presented at last month’s Jackson Hole conference.

Our high-frequency indicators show China’s growth momentum weakening further in September, increasing the likelihood of new stimulus in the weeks ahead. We remain tactically cautious on Chinese equities, but strategically constructive on offshore Chinese shares.

September flash PMIs show slowing global momentum, reinforcing US equity outperformance and underweights in industrial metals. The US composite slipped to 53.6 from 54.6, led by weaker manufacturing. Europe was mixed: Services strengthened modestly but…
European sentiment indicators weakened again in August and September, reinforcing tactical US outperformance. While the September flash consumer confidence print beat expectations, it is still sluggish. Surveys such as Sentix and ZEW, both leading indicators…
August retail sales beat expectations, but resilience in consumption does not alter a defensive stance as labor momentum weakens. Headline sales rose 0.6% m/m, unchanged from July, while core ex-autos and gas accelerated to 0.7% from 0.3%. The control group…