Consumer
The January 2025 ECB bank lending survey saw a net tightening of credit standards in Q4 2024. Credit standards were tightened for business and consumer lending, and were roughly unchanged for home mortgage loans. Banks expect further tightening across all…
1月のコンファレンス・ボード消費者信頼感指数は予想を下回り、12月の上方修正された109.5から104.1に低下しました。低下は現在の状況と期待のサブコンポーネント双方によってもたらされました。求人が豊富だと答えた割合と見つけにくいと答えた割合の差である労働差もサイクル底付近まで低下しており、労働市場の緩みを示唆しています。 調査ベースの消費者および企業の信頼感指標は選挙直後に急騰しましたが、その後は冷めています。12月の小売売上高は 期待外れ…
The January Ifo Business Climate index for Germany beat estimates, increasing to 85.1 vs. 84.7 in December. The increase came from the survey’s current assessment component, which increased a full point, as the expectations component missed estimates and…
Our China Investment Strategy team explored how the costs of higher tariffs might be distributed among foreign suppliers, US importers, and consumers. The inflationary impact of new US tariffs is likely to remain modest unless President Trump imposes…
Global risk assets are engulfed in a wave of euphoria, which is pulling Europe higher along the way. However, risks still abound. How should investors adjust their allocation to Europe under these highly uncertain conditions?
US December housing data was strong, with housing starts printing above estimates at 1.49m, an acceleration from an upwardly-revised 1.29m in November. Building permits also surprised positively at 1.483m, but still decreased from 1.493m a month prior. The…
December US retail sales missed estimates, with the headline number printing at 0.4% m/m, a decline from an upwardly revised 0.8% in November. On the positive side, the control group beat estimates at 0.7%. Netting it all out, the report was uninspiring, and…
The January Philly Fed Manufacturing index blew past estimates, soaring to 44.3 vs. a revised 10.9 points contraction in December. Most subcomponents rose for both the current and expected categories. Measures of prices paid and received also ticked up. We…
The December US CPI came in better than expected. While headline CPI met estimates of 0.4% m/m (2.9% y/y), core surprised to the downside at 0.2% m/m, decelerating to 3.2% y/y from 3.3%. Moderation in core annual inflation was driven by both goods, which are…
The December NFIB Small Business Optimism Index beat expectations, jumping to 105.1 from 101.7 in November. Most index subcomponents increased, led by measure of expectations, notably for the state of the economy and real sales. After jumping 39 percentage…