Sentiment

Hard aggregate macro data series remain solid, but surveys of businesses and consumers continue to worsen and the list of consumer-facing companies lowering earnings estimates gets longer by the week. We believe surging equities are ignoring the adverse effects of tariffs and reiterate our defensive asset allocation recommendations.

The US economy faces a new investment regime characterized by tighter fiscal and easier monetary policies. The market corrected fast, and a short-lived equity rebound is likely. However, over the long term, US equities face economic headwinds.

We are at a pivotal moment for Europe, supported by structural reforms and macro catalysts. While expanding credit markets and lower rates favor Private Equity over Private Credit, opportunities vary by segment. Large+ Buyouts are attractive as markets have priced in structural challenges. We downgrade Europe Private Credit, remain neutral on Europe Private Equity broadly but overweight Europe vs. North America in PE portfolios.

Sentiment will stay positive for now, but downside risks are rising. Investors should proceed cautiously in stock picking and portfolio construction at this juncture, given rising economic and policy uncertainty, which threaten market sentiment, and more broadly, the current bull-market. 

In this first presentation of 2025, we start with an overview of the 2025 outlook webcast polls, and a brief post-mortem of the 2024 market performance. Then, we shift gears and examine what is behind the recent surge in bond yields and its implications for equities. We also review market technicals and positioning and conclude with a list of trades to prepare our portfolio for continued moves in yields.

To kick start our new research agenda at Equity Analyzer, we welcome you to our weekly screener report. Each week we will deliver three screeners highlighting stocks exposed to various macro and investment views and themes, that have either been suggested by various BCA strategies, such as the Global Investment Strategy, or are based on research by the Equity Analyzer team. In our first installment, we take a look at US Tech stocks, equity sentiment, and quality "bubble" stocks.