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ECB: Nearing Neutral With A Complex Outlook
The ECB cut 25 bps as expected, bringing the deposit facility rate to 2.5%. President Lagarde reiterated the disinflationary process is “well on track” and described the policy stance as “meaningfully less restrictive”, signalling the ECB is nearing…
Daily Insights による Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Germany Will Force The ECB’s Hand, Eventually

The ECB cut rates as expected, but rising yields and a stronger euro are tightening financial conditions just as fiscal policy shifts the macro landscape. With more rate cuts ahead and market positioning stretched, we outline the key risks, investment opportunities, and our updated call on the ECB’s terminal rate. Read our full report for actionable insights.

European Investment Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy による Mathieu Savary
Recession Risk Is Back

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for March 2025.

US Bond Strategy による Ryan Swift
Escaping Europe’s Liquidity Trap
Our European strategists see Europe escaping its liquidity trap, which will create a structural tailwind for European assets. Europe’s resilience amid global shocks is supported by a shift away from precautionary money demand, signaling increased…
Daily Insights による Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
ISM Manufacturing: A Stagflationary Impulse
The February ISM Manufacturing index was weaker than expected, declining to 50.3 from 50.9. New orders plunged to 48.6 from 55.1, with employment also contracting. Price pressures however increased. Prices paid and suppliers’ delivery times jumped to their…
Daily Insights による Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Tokyo CPI Remains Hot
The February Tokyo CPI print came in slightly cooler than expected. Headline inflation moderated to 2.9% y/y from 3.4%, while “core core” was steady at 1.9%. The Tokyo CPI gives an advance reading on national price pressures, and the data suggests…
Daily Insights による Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
関税ショックとFRBの対応
今朝のコアPCEインフレは小幅にとどまったが、大規模な関税が間近に迫っているため、今後数か月でインフレ指標は上振れすると予想している。
米国債券ストラテジー による Ryan Swift
‘Mini-Stagflation’ Will End With A Financial Shock

The US (and the UK) is staring down the barrel of a ‘mini-stagflation’ until a deflationary shock arrives to neutralise it. We describe a likely source for the deflationary shock and list three investment conclusions that are valid irrespective of how long it takes for the deflationary shock to arrive. Plus: RCI.B is deeply oversold and ripe for a rebound.

Counterpoint による Dhaval Joshi
US Rates Focus Shifts From Fiscal To Growth
The House of Representatives passed a Budget Resolution bill that adds $2.8tn to the deficit by 2034. Our Geopolitical strategists highlighted during our BCA Live & Unfiltered meeting that the Senate is likely to modify it by increasing tax cuts and…
Daily Insights による Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
European Wages Cool
Fourth-quarter European negotiated wages growth cooled to 4.1% y/y, down from the 5.4% peak seen in Q3. The cooling is in line with the ECB’s Wage Tracker showing wage growth decelerating to 1.3% by the end of the year. Labor demand is easing in Europe,…
Daily Insights による Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier

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