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Emerging Markets

MacroQuant Model Update: The Trump Factor

MacroQuant warns that US equities are pricing in very little economic risk. The model is shunning equities and recommends a large overweight to cash.

Global Asset Allocation by Peter Berezin, Chanhyuck Lee, Allen Li
China’s Tourism Industry: A Smart Play Or A Risky Bet?
China’s tourism sector has rebounded meaningfully since the January 2023 COVID reopening; however, investors should not be complacent about the outlook for tourism stocks. The double-digit revenue growth of the Chinese tourism industry over the past…
Daily Insights by Juan Egana
Peru: A Small EM Gem
Peru’s economic resilience will help its markets outperform their EM peers. A global growth downturn will weigh on EM assets in absolute terms, but Peruvian markets offer attractive tradeable opportunities. The Andean nation has much better macro…
Daily Insights by Juan Egana
India: A Slowing Economy Calls For Caution On Equities
Industrial activity in India is deteriorating, which will weigh on a stock market that’s priced for perfection. Indian industrial production slowed to 2.7% year-on-year in April compared to 3.9% in March. The economic slowdown will gain traction in…
Daily Insights by Juan Egana
Argentina: Politics Are Fueling The Bull Market
The latest political developments in Argentina increase the odds of further liberalizing reforms and solidify the economy’s structural upside. First, the libertarian governing party came out on top in Buenos Aires’ legislative elections. While municipal…
Daily Insights by Juan Egana
Bet On Peru’s Outperformance

Peru’s economic resilience will help its markets outperform their EM peers. Domestic macro fundamentals are robust, and strong external accounts will lead to a stable-to-strengthening currency versus the US dollar. Overweight Peruvian equities, local bonds, and sovereign credit relative to their respective EM benchmarks, and go long 10-year domestic bonds (currency unhedged).

Emerging Markets Strategy by Juan Egana
EMS webcast May 22, 2025
China's Rebalancing, Global Trade, And The US Dollar
We are pleased to share the replay of Emerging Markets Webcast "China's Rebalancing, Global Trade, And The US Dollar", hosted by Chief EM & China Strategist Arthur Budaghyan.
Emerging Markets Strategy Webcast
Mexico: Monetary Easing Continues
Banxico’s 50 bps rate cut reinforces our bullish view on Mexican bonds, with easing likely to continue as inflation falls and growth slows. The central bank unanimously lowered its policy rate to 8.5%, and we expect further cuts ahead as Mexico heads toward a…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Credit Numbers Show Beijing Aiming For Stability, Not Recovery
China’s weak April credit data reinforces the case for defensive positioning, with policy aimed at stability, not recovery. New yuan loans and aggregate financing both rose less than expected. While credit growth may have bottomed, it remains public-sector…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Mexico’s Geopolitics: From Headwind To Tailwind

Short-term pain from Trump-related concessions, fiscal tightening amid a US and Mexican slowdown, and rising labor slack will weigh further on Mexican assets. But long-run, policy direction will capitalize on the nearshoring trend and resume the trend of Mexican asset outperformance relative to other emerging markets.

Geopolitical Strategy by Max Malakhveitchouk

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