GeoMacro
A blend of geopolitics and macro, synthesizing the new and old macro to generate alpha and identify the beta through probability-weighted market views.
Japanese financial assets will finally have unfettered access to outsized returns. This performance will come in fits and starts, but we are comfortable laying our cards down on buying the yen, and Japanese industrial stocks.
The real reason behind the overt support by the US of Argentina’s experiment is far less exotic and yet also far more lucrative for global investors.
Our conclusions from 2019 were on point. We correctly predicted the fiscal and monetary deluge in 2020 and the subsequent rise in fiscal deficits. Now that we are where we are, someone is going to have to pay for it all. Especially as America's income inequality outcomes are just as bad as ever.
What should investors take from this flurry of diplomatic activity ahead of the US Thanksgiving holiday?
Investors are starting to price an end to the conflict in Ukraine as President Trump’s team puts on a full court press with the intention of replicating the successful peace negotiations in the Middle East.
US talks with Russia and China coincide with rising EU-Russia and Japan-China tensions. Stay overweight US assets and long Japanese yen.
Partisan redrawing of congressional districts will not prevent Democrats from retaking the House in the 2026 midterms. Neither will the Supreme Court's look at the Voting Rights Act.
What would “Old Man Partridge” say about the end of 2025? Risks are mounting everywhere one looks. The labor market is more than wobbly. The AI capex boom is a bubble, the front pages proclaim. And geopolitical tensions have been percolating throughout the year. The odds are that the venerable investor from the Reminiscences of a Stock Operator would cast a tired glance from behind his spectacles and utter, under his breath, “Well, you know this is a bull market.”
