GeoMacro

Japan's new government will continue, but politics and foreign policy have become more competitive.

Special Report

Spain's equity and bond outperformance reflects genuine fundamental repair: Lower bad loans, stronger profitability, and sustained earnings upgrades. Valuations remain undemanding despite the rally. Productivity is the key structural risk, but near-term fundamentals continue to surprise to the upside.

Special Report

After 250 years, the USA is still the biggest thing happening in the world. But it faces huge challenges in the coming decades from socioeconomic imbalances and strategic competition.

The year 2026 has started off well, with not even the threat to central bank independence denting the market's enthusiasm. Perhaps our tactical caution is misplaced.

Congress will ultimately limit Trump from acting on his worst impulses, but his efforts to bypass those limits will cause market volatility.

The risk to Iran's regime survival raises the probability of a massive global oil supply shock back to around 40%, where we put it last year.

The US removal of Venezuela's Maduro does not presage an invasion of Greenland. But it does justify a lingering risk of conflict with Iran.

In trying to dispel client concerns that the US would get involved in another “forever war” akin to Iraq, we posited in a recent missive that President Trump’s designs on Venezuela were similar to the 1983 invasion of Grenada. A way to flex American muscle while, at the same time, reducing US global commitments.

Late December is time for relaxation and reflection. We sincerely hope that all our clients and friends have had the time to defragment their brains over the past two weeks. The geomacro Vol is unlikely to let up in 2026. We will all need stamina and clarity for what lies ahead.