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Core US inflation is still running above target. But this morning’s data revisions reveal that the gap is not nearly as large as it appeared yesterday.
Global capex is driving the strongest industrial cycle since 2021. The US is best positioned to capture the gains and to weather near-term risks, supporting widening real-rate differentials and favoring continued upside in the dollar in the coming months.
Record diesel prices and mounting political pressure make some form of US export restriction likely. But it wouldn't be a clean solution. We reveal why relief would be fleeting, who would pay the price, and how to trade it.
Central banks have begun a mild tightening cycle as elevated energy prices raise concerns about second-round inflation effects. We use BCA’s Central Bank Monitors to test whether hawkish market pricing is justified and identify tactical opportunities across global bond and currency markets.
Recent oil market developments expose the limits of the adjustment mechanisms that have cushioned the global market since the Hormuz closure began. Fortunately, Hormuz dark transits have become the dominant shock absorber in recent months, and rising flows should help mitigate the latest supply disruption going forward.
The Fed is unanimous in expecting a mild tightening cycle of no more than 75 bps, but that outcome is contingent on a rapid drop in core inflation in 2027.
August’s 0.3% increase in core CPI breaks inflation’s 3-month downtrend and is likely hot enough for the Fed to hike rates when it meets next week.
The ECB is winning, and almost nobody's pricing it in. A flatter Phillips curve, a shrinking term premium, a euro built to shrug off France, credibility is the trade.
Thursday's sharp pullback in the COMEX copper price from an all-time high underscores a key risk to the red metal's resilience. An eventual resolution of US copper tariff uncertainty would likely trigger a price relapse. That drawdown, however, would offer an attractive opportunity to increase structural exposure to the metal.