FICC | Bonds

Markets are pricing a return to a neutral policy stance for the major central banks within the next 12 months. However, recession risks still loom amid slowing growth. We unpack where recession risks are underappreciated and what it means for bond positioning.

Volatility is back in UST/Bund spreads. We unpack what’s driving the moves and explain what we are watching for tactical opportunities in the UST/Bund spread.

Special Report

The Treasury/OIS spread has exerted notable upward pressure on Treasury yields during the past year, but the factors driving the spread are now turning more favorable.

Special Report

UK inflation risks are falling on the back of a weakening labor market. Read why Gilts and UK stocks are poised to outperform as BoE easing resumes.

The Fed’s 2025 interest rate projections reveal two camps within the committee. One group looking for no rate cuts this year and another looking for 50-bps of easing. We think the second group’s forecast will turn out to be more accurate.

In this note, we reaffirm our underweight position in JGBs and long yen positions given the BoJ’s meeting overnight.

While we anticipate higher inflation in June, it looks increasingly likely that the price impact from tariffs will be less aggressive and long-lasting than many feared.

Special Report

France’s political turmoil is far from over, and fiscal fears are growing. This is not a bond-friendly environment. In contrast, it is a good time to upgrade French equities. As the 2027 presidential race is about to begin in earnest, we make an early call on its outcome.

For now, measures of labor market utilization (like the unemployment rate) are only gradually weakening. But we know from history that these trends have a habit of quickly accelerating in advance of recession.

The ECB is changing its tone, but don’t call it a pivot. Slower cuts, sticky disinflation, and a soft growth patch shift the opportunity set. We break down the tactical bond trades and why EUR/USD dips are still for buying.