Our tactical framework, which tracks the reflexive loop between financial conditions and economic surprises, points to stronger near-term growth, leaving equities vulnerable if inflation re-accelerates. Data surprises move markets, while bond yields and the USD in turn shape growth outcomes through ...
Monetary policy divergences are re-emerging. We rely on BCA’s Central Bank Monitor to assess the current policy stance of major central banks, and highlight the tactical opportunities across bond markets and currencies....
Real Estate performance is contingent upon the Fed rate-cutting cycle. Yet, we worry about a hawkish Fed surprise and are closing our overweight in the sector. We also recommend a granular approach to subsector selection....
Rising Russia-NATO risks, tactical oil/gold trades, tougher sanctions on Russia (maybe China), China stimulus with ~5% growth target, and US checks on Trump’s ambitions will define Q4....
In Section I, Doug highlights that benchmark positioning in equities, fixed income and cash is now recommended. Still, the US macro situation warrants continual monitoring, given weakening labor market momentum. In Section II, Jonathan shows how valuation-adjusted fundamental momentum has been a suc...
Chilean equities are undergoing a structural re-rating. A political swing back to a pro-business administration, a benign macro backdrop, and a resilient exchange rate will drive Chilean markets’ outperformance versus EM peers....
