Our high-frequency indicators show China’s growth momentum weakening further in September, increasing the likelihood of new stimulus in the weeks ahead. We remain tactically cautious on Chinese equities, but strategically constructive on offshore Chinese shares....
Putin’s position is weakening as Trump backs Ukraine, NATO threatens retaliation, and Ukrainian drones cripple Russian refineries. Moscow’s petty war aims embolden Eastern Europe, raising NATO-Russia confrontation risks. We remain long oil and long European defense stocks....
We give a one-third probability of a federal government shutdown. It probably will not happen before November. At worst, government shutdowns only cause temporary market volatility....
The US Treasury safe haven status is being seriously questioned. We assess whether US Treasuries are still unrivaled or which bond markets and assets are gaining ground. We do so by breaking down which global bond markets are best positioned to absorb risk-off flows in a shifting macro regime....
Powell’s “risk management cut” underscores the Fed’s shift toward growth risks, reinforcing long duration with steepeners. Risk management is central to monetary policy. It determines how policymakers balance uncertainty and decide which mistake is less costly: Cutting too soon and risking inflation...
While it is not yet time to bet against risk assets, we push back on the increasingly popular ideas that the wealthiest households and/or AI-related capex can keep the expansion going despite the wobbling labor market....
In this report, penned by BCA’s Global Investment Strategy team, our colleagues examine a wide range of strategies designed to capitalize on stock market anomalies. GIS will be using a mixture of these strategies for its new PowerTrades service....
One year in, the EU is progressing slowly in implementing Mario Draghi's recommendations to restore Europe’s competitiveness. The lack of progress is due more to the various pushbacks from European capitals and the lack of proper funding than a lack of ambition. Our overall assessment remains positi...
Germany is moving forward with implementing the large fiscal and defence spending announced earlier this year. Fiscal reforms are also positive, though they will fall short of expectations....
