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Webcast Replay

BCA Chief Strategists, Mathieu Savary, Roukaya Ibrahim, and Noah Weisberger looked at the latest developments in the Strait of Hormuz and the implications for global financial markets.

 

Topics discussed:

  • The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and energy markets are tightening again. Is the shock being underpriced?
  • What would a sustained disruption mean for the global growth–inflation trade-off? Is stagflation risk creeping back?
  • Within commodities, where is the real asymmetry now? What’s crowded, and what still offers upside?
  • Can strategic reserve releases truly cap the rally, or do they just delay the adjustment?
  • Equities have remained resilient. Are markets looking through the shock, or misreading it?
  • Where is the tipping point: how much further can oil rise before equities reprice meaningfully?
  • If crude continues higher, which sectors and factors offer the most convex exposure, not just beta?
  • If flows normalize and oil rolls over, where does leadership rotate, and how quickly?
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India is probably the most vulnerable among the G-20 economies should the Strait of Hormuz not reopen fully by the end of this month. Growth will slow, while inflation will rise materially. Investors should brace for further weakness in the currency and stock prices....
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Webcast Replay

US Equity Strategy Webcast Series: Noah Holds Barred - Episode 2

Noah and Jason discussed:

  • What earnings, revisions and expectations are telling us now
  • The latest read on Tech revenues, capex, and demand for AI
  • Why we are long Software
  • The outlook for margins: Macro headwinds vs. AI
  • Key feedback and pushback from 32 client meetings & 34 Lunch and Dinner attendees:
    • The impact of AI IPOs, consumer spending trends, Utilities underweight
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Report
The global economy has weathered the oil shock reasonably well so far. However, the risk of a recession will increase meaningfully if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed into June....
05 May 2026
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Report
The tenuous ceasefire holds, with the "new geopolitical equilibrium scenario" remaining in place. Enough crude trickles through Hormuz to avert a global recession, but not to alleviate building inflationary pressures, a product of a complicated geomacro context that is not transitory. The Fed will l...
05 May 2026