A weakening economy will apply downward pressure to Treasury yields, but the Trump term premium will keep long-dated yields higher than they would otherwise be. This makes Treasury curve steepeners the most attractive trade in US fixed income....
Utilities remain a long-term structural investment theme thanks to the tailwinds from GenAI, EV, and onshoring. However, there is little upside left over the tactical investment horizon as all the positives are priced in. We close our overweight and book profits....
The announced US-China deal has taken everyone – even us, the authors of the implicitly bullish Seven Steps of Maximum Pressure – by surprise. President Trump has signaled a pause in the fight against China. Yes, the situation can reverse, but when your Secretary Treasury says things like “neither s...
The easing bias remains, but not all central banks are equal. This Central Bank Monitor update reveals who is ready to cut more and who is still pretending not to....
OPEC+ recently announced another outsized oil production hike, tripling its planned June output increase to 411k b/d for the second consecutive month. Our take on why KSA is boosting crude output at a time of heightened downside demand risks is that it is pursuing an oil price war lite. President Tr...
Short-term pain from Trump-related concessions, fiscal tightening amid a US and Mexican slowdown, and rising labor slack will weigh further on Mexican assets. But long-run, policy direction will capitalize on the nearshoring trend and resume the trend of Mexican asset outperformance relative to othe...
This week, our three screeners cover: Identifying stocks with negative earnings leading into Q2; picking out losing stocks from a tariff-induced margin squeeze; and a tactical opportunity in high-scoring sentiment stocks....
Rate cuts, recession risks, and relative value. This report unpacks how the BoE, Riksbank, and Norges Bank are reacting to global trade turmoil and where the opportunities lie....
It may take several months for the tariff shock and policy uncertainty to filter through the real economy, but survey-based data are already sending a warning. Equities have priced in a lot of good news, and investors are too sanguine about the risk of a US recession....
