AI

The IPO wave has arrived, dominated by SpaceX’s massive listing. Aftermarket performance has been weak, and elevated issuance is weighing on S&P 500 multiples, although some pressure is already priced. SpaceX remains only partly digested, while Anthropic and OpenAI will bring further supply and greater business model scrutiny.

Concerns by the major AI companies that they are locked into a financially unsustainable arms race for AI dominance are likely playing as much a role in their newfound “go slow” approach as concerns over AI doom.

An acute shortage of AI hardware will support tech stocks into year-end. However, AI companies may need to ultimately generate $10 trillion per year in revenue to justify their capex. Barring a massive increase in productivity growth, this will be very difficult to achieve. Despite today’s Treasury announcement of upsized buyback operations, bond yields are likely to remain elevated over the coming months. Rising crack spreads have reduced the demand for crude, which is not encouraging for global growth. On the FX front, recent intervention to support the yen will probably be insufficient, but there is significant long-term upside for the currency.