Latest from BCA Research
Imminent monetary and fiscal easing, along with resilient earnings growth, support a constructive outlook for equities. However, in the near term, significant tail risks persist. We recommend strengthening downside protection by lowering portfolio beta.
President Trump has announced on social media that the US has conducted air strikes against three Iranian nuclear sites, including the hardened (and underground) Fordow that Israel has been unable to penetrate.
The escalating Israel-Iran conflict has boosted oil prices. We are positioning for further geopolitical escalation, uncertainty, and the economic fallout through two strategies that benefit from both near- and long-term upside.
This week our three screeners explore: Equity trades across the Euro Zone focusing on Technicals and Sentiment; US Oil, Gas and Fuel stocks; and European Small Caps.
In this Insight, we highlight our strong conviction trades based on the central bank meetings held by the Bank of England, the Norges Bank, the Swiss National Bank and the Riksbank.
The pound will reach $1.60 if ‘America’s Brexit’ cancels out ‘Britain’s Brexit’. Meanwhile, the flight from the fiat dollar to non-fiat bitcoin will enable the preeminent cryptocurrency to reach $200,000+.
The Fed’s 2025 interest rate projections reveal two camps within the committee. One group looking for no rate cuts this year and another looking for 50-bps of easing. We think the second group’s forecast will turn out to be more accurate.
Since our last missive on June 15, three trading days have passed. The S&P 500 is up 0.2%, the US 10-year Treasuries yield has declined by 3 basis points, Brent crude is up 2.7%, gold is down by 2%, the JPY is down 0.7%, and DXY is up 0.7%. Our message prior to the start of these three trading days was that there was some more upside to oil prices in the very near term. However, that this upside would not be that impressive. Second, that the S&P 500 should not be shorted. And that the USD and US Treasuries would not be a great hedge, but that gold and JPY would be.
In this Insight, we look at the best trade idea from the recent rate cut by the Riksbank.
Even if Iran tries to revive talks, the US has an irresistible opportunity to dismantle its nuclear program. Tactically, investors should favor Treasuries over the S&P, defensive sectors over cyclicals, energy stocks over cyclicals, and US stocks over European stocks in the near term.