Latest from BCA Research
In this note, we reaffirm our underweight position in JGBs and long yen positions given the BoJ’s meeting overnight.
Israel’s attacks on Iran will continue until Iran is forced to strike regional oil supply to get the US to restrain Israel. That may not work. Investors should prepare for a broader economic impact of the conflict.
The EM EPS recovery has been narrow, solely driven by TMT stocks in China, Korea, and Taiwan. EM corporate profits are set to contract in the next six to nine months. Unlike in the past, US dollar weakness will be deflationary, not reflationary, for EM share prices.
Recently, small-cap stocks have shown signs of outperformance. In this report, we examine whether the rebound is sustainable by analyzing long-term structural trends, the macroeconomic backdrop, the impact of tariffs, and other key factors.
Following a rapid-fire review of issues related to household balance sheets, durable goods demand, the impact of tariffs, DOGE’s capacity to move the budget needle and the labor market’s ongoing cooling, we reiterate our defensive asset allocation recommendations.
It has been three days since Israel started its air campaign against Iran. We now have greater visibility into Israel’s targeting, as well as Iran’s retaliation. Israel’s air force has struck almost every single Iranian nuclear program facility, government buildings, research centers, and – most importantly – energy facilities. Most of these targets are expected, but the attacks against Iran’s energy facilities are concerning as they suggest that Tehran may have casus belli to strike back at the energy facilities strewn around the Persian Gulf.
The conflict between Iran and Israel continues. There will be ample time to update our views on the specifics of the kinetic action. Thus far, Iranian retaliation has been confined to Israel, which according to our hierarchy of potential responses, is the least market relevant.
In this FX note, we provide a rationale for why it is important to pay attention to technical indicators, while still keeping your eyeball on the structural factors that drive currencies. This report answers the following questions: 1. Should you buy or sell the USD over a three-to-six month period from the pure lens of our proven technical indicators and 2. What are the best tactical cross trades among currencies.
An intriguing dichotomy is emerging in how the US government has responded to Israel’s attack against Iran. First, following the attack, Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued a terse statement denying US involvement.