Latest from BCA Research
This week our three screeners identify equity plays on copper prices, stocks that are considered “boring” but are solid earners during heightened uncertainty, and stocks which are positively correlated with Bitcoin.
In this chartbook, we look at the balance of payments across DM and EM countries. The US does not fare well, but neither do a few other countries.
We will abandon our recession call if US economic data show clear signs of stabilization over the summer months. For now, that has not happened. Maintain a modest underweight to stocks but look to get more defensive if MacroQuant’s equity z-score falls below -1.
Upward pressure on Japan’s real bond yield justifies overweighting the yen and underweighting overvalued tech. Plus: two new tactical trades are long JPY/EUR and short platinum.
We have thrown caution to the wind and gone overweight equities. Why? Three reasons: the Fed is under immense political pressure to pivot, USD has depreciated, and inflation is in check. It is going to be a very difficult job for Fed Chair Powell to ignore the downside risks to both inflation and growth. If he does, he will be accused – correctly – of political bias.
An update on the key themes and views that will shape commodity markets through the remainder of 2025.