Latest from BCA Research

Trump’s territorial ambitions threaten to deliver negative surprises and “black swan” risks during his four-year term. Military conflicts on the Mexican border raise the biggest risk, but US intervention in Panama can never be ruled out. The investment impact will be limited unless the trans-Atlantic alliance is damaged.

Special Report

Argentina is entering a regime shift from the traditional short boom-bust cycles of the past 50 years. Profound structural reforms will result in a productivity boom, leading to a more durable economic expansion while keeping with the disinflation trend. Authorities will likely lift capital and currency controls in the second quarter of this year. All in all, odds are that Argentinian assets have entered a multi-year bull market.

We expect market volatility to remain elevated due to uncertain economic, monetary, and trade policies. Barbell is the best portfolio strategy at this time. We recommend boosting defensive allocations to lower portfolio beta. We downgrade Industrials to equal weight and upgrade Pharma to overweight.

The 10% tariff hike announced on Saturday will likely serve as the opening salvo in a broader wave of protectionist measures. In this report, we assess the increase in US import tariffs on China. While the direct impact on China’s overall economy may be manageable, the country’s economy faces significant risks from potential disruptions in global trade.

Markets and forecasters anticipate a “Golden Age” for Trump’s America, with US growth expectations soaring while the rest of the world lags. However, this extreme optimism means that there is a lot of room for disappointment. Cooling income growth, weak housing and less deficit spending than expected will result in US growth underperforming expectations. Maintain a modest underweight to equities and modest overweight to fixed income. US markets have become more expensive relative to the rest of the world even as quality differentials have stabilized. Prepare to downgrade US equities to underweight and to upgrade Euro Area and China to overweight. We will wait to pull the trigger until we have more clarity on trade policy and when the dollar's momentum turns negative.

The latest version of the MacroQuant model suggests that the bull market in US stocks is winding down. The model expects Treasury yields to fall later this year but is not ready to go long duration just yet.

The latest version of the MacroQuant model suggests that the bull market in US stocks is winding down. The model expects Treasury yields to fall later this year but is not ready to go long duration just yet.

Special Report

China barely hit its growth target in 2024 by shifting back to its old model of exports, racking up a record trade surplus with the world – right as Donald Trump walks back into the White House. Tariffs will elicit larger fiscal stimulus even as China rolls out innovations such as DeepSeek to meet its 2025 industrial goals, creating a volatile mix this year.

Core PCE inflation came in soft this morning and is tracking well below the Fed’s 2025 forecast. We highlight three upside risks to inflation and preview next week’s employment report.