Essentials

Special Report

After 250 years, the USA is still the biggest thing happening in the world. But it faces huge challenges in the coming decades from socioeconomic imbalances and strategic competition.

Bank Credit Analyst

In Section I, Doug underscores that the US labor market remains weak, crimping the outlook for disposable income growth. It is too soon to decisively bet against the bull market, but downside risks remain quite elevated. In Section II, Jonathan updates the BCA Artificial Intelligence Productivity Checklist and concludes that the evidence of an AI-driven productivity boom is not convincing.

Bank Credit Analyst

In Section II, Jonathan updates the BCA Artificial Intelligence Productivity Checklist and concludes that the evidence of an AI-driven productivity boom is not convincing.

Special Report

In this report, we present an AI investment framework for long-term investors. We conclude that an “AI Winter” is likely to begin over the next one-to-three years. Investors should strategically favor value over growth stocks.

Bank Credit Analyst

Today, we are sending you the BCA annual outlook for 2026. The report is an edited transcript of our recent conversation with Mr. X and his daughter Ms. X, who are long-time BCA clients. Our discussion featured BCA’s economic and financial market outlook for the year ahead.

Bank Credit Analyst

In Section I, Doug explains how the sharp upward revision to second-quarter consumption in the final GDP estimate has reduced our recession conviction and could lead us to abandon our recession call altogether. The situation is fluid, though, as typified by the striking weakness of stocks in consumer-facing and cyclically exposed subindustries. In Section II, Doug and Global Investment Strategy’s Miroslav Aradski consider the implications of the AI investment boom.

Bank Credit Analyst

In Section II, Doug and Global Investment Strategy’s Miroslav Aradski consider the implications of the AI investment boom.

Bank Credit Analyst

In Section I, Doug highlights that benchmark positioning in equities, fixed income and cash is now recommended. Still, the US macro situation warrants continual monitoring, given weakening labor market momentum. In Section II, Jonathan shows how valuation-adjusted fundamental momentum has been a successful tool for ranking global sectors.

Bank Credit Analyst

In Section II, Jonathan shows how valuation-adjusted fundamental momentum has been a successful tool for ranking global sectors.

Bank Credit Analyst

In Section I, Doug notes that a negative stance toward stocks will require a meaningful and imminent deterioration in the US macro data given the ongoing impact of AI optimism on the global equity market. In Section II, Chester reviews the outlook for stablecoins, cryptocurrencies, and central bank digital currencies.