DeepSeek's AI breakthrough will likely enhance China’s productivity gains. But does it justify a re-valuation in Chinese tech stocks? Sustaining the Chinese tech rally will require corporate profits to overcome the pressures of China’s deflationary cycle. Meanwhile, DeepSeek’s innovations may fuel g...
We are at a pivotal moment for Europe, supported by structural reforms and macro catalysts. While expanding credit markets and lower rates favor Private Equity over Private Credit, opportunities vary by segment. Large+ Buyouts are attractive as markets have priced in structural challenges. We downgr...
We introduce a systematic approach to investing based on the combination of three macroeconomic variables: economic, inflation, and monetary policy surprises....
Overnight, the RBA cut the cash target rate for the first time since 2022, marking the beginning of the policy easing cycle in Australia. However, the RBA will proceed cautiously with further rate cuts, given a tight labor market and still elevated services inflation. This will keep Australian gover...
Expectations of US import tariffs drove the latest upleg in the prices of precious and industrial metals. However, there are no significant economic or political incentives for the US to impose import tariffs on these metals. Therefore, investors should fade the recent spike in gold, silver, platinu...
The rise of the far-right is challenging mainstream German politics. The CDU/CSU and SPD will govern Germany again after the election. A ceasefire in Ukraine will offer some relief, but Trump’s policies will keep tensions high....
As gold keeps making new highs, many clients have asked us whether a gold allocation makes sense for their portfolios and, if so, how big that allocation should be. In this report we try to answer these questions from the perspective of investors with eight different home currencies. Specifically, w...
In lieu of all the geopolitical and economic news in media, this report looks at where next the dollar is likely to trend in the next one-to-three months. Our view is down, though on a cyclical horizon (six-to-twelve months), we would not be short the dollar, for now....
President Trump is negotiating a ceasefire in Ukraine. This will be a marginal headwind to some commodities which benefitted from the conflict like natural gas and wheat, and will be a marginal tailwind for European assets, specifically EM Europe. Use Trump’s tariff shock as an opportunity to buy Eu...
This week, our three screeners cover equity plays on the run-up in gold prices, a hotter-than-expected US inflation print, and calling the top in Bitcoin....
