BCA’s Commodity strategists remain long gold/short LME copper and have initiated an outright short in LME copper as a cyclical trade. The US copper tariff will redirect supply away from the US, replenishing depleted inventories…
June Taiwanese export orders surprised to the upside, but weakness in non-tech trade and in broader East Asian exports underscores the narrowness of the global recovery. Orders rose 24.6% y/y, accelerating from 18.5% in May, though m…
EUR/JPY has reached stretched levels, prompting new short trade recommendations across BCA Strategies. The calls are underpinned by compelling valuation, macro, and technical signals.
In this chartbook, we look at the balance of payments across DM and EM countries. The US does not fare well, but neither do a few other countries.
The latest data on Asian exports and manufacturing suggest that the global trade outlook remains downbeat. Korean exports in USD terms grew in June by 4.3% y/y. The three-month moving average is 2.2%. Assuming Q2 export shipments…
Downward pressure on the pound will rise in the coming months. Inflation will go up, so will bond yields. It’s time to book profits on Egyptian domestic bonds.
Global inflation risks remain subdued, reinforcing a long duration stance across select DM government bonds. Our price pressure index shows moderate input price inflation outside the US and stable delivery times globally.…
Investors should modestly underweight equities in their portfolios and look to turn more aggressively defensive once the whites of the recession’s eyes are visible. We think that will happen within the next few months.
This month, we focus on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). Our assessment in the Alpha report is that there won’t be any remaining alpha to harvest by shorting duration. The team that coined the “Human Steepener” moniker for…
President Trump faces new restrictions on his trade powers coming from the US judicial branch, but they will not prevent him from continuing to restrict trade and investment with China. Rather, they will establish some curbs against…