Our US Investment strategists visited Midwest clients, and provided a summary of their discussions with investors. Despite solid data, investors should focus on where the economy is headed rather than where it has been. Excess…
Fourth-quarter European negotiated wages growth cooled to 4.1% y/y, down from the 5.4% peak seen in Q3. The cooling is in line with the ECB’s Wage Tracker showing wage growth decelerating to 1.3% by the end of the year. Labor…
German election results were roughly as expected, but Europe’s biggest economy suddenly just got more interesting. While the details of the governing coalition have yet to be finalized, Chancellor Merz has floated options to ease the…
The February Conference Board Consumer Confidence index missed estimates for the third month in a row, falling to 98.3 from 105.3. Consumers’ assessment of both their current situation and their expectations worsened, with the latter…
Our China strategists assessed the outlook for Chinese stocks in the aftermath of the DeepSeek hype. DeepSeek’s innovations will boost China’s productivity and technological advancement but are unlikely to create a strong…
Our Chart Of The Week comes from Chester Ntonifor, Chief Strategist for our Foreign Exchange and Global Fixed Income Strategy services. A big macro trade over the last few years has been to shun US Treasuries, in favor of…
February’s flash PMIs for the major developed markets showed softening growth, and rising price pressures. The US composite index missed estimates and decreased to 50.4 from 52.7 in January. Services were a big contributor to the…
Two of our favorite indicators recently sent important signals. The first one, the short-term stock-bond yield correlation, recently drifted back to neutral territory after being negative. The correlation had been negative since…
Eurozone banks have quietly outpaced the Magnificent 7—can they keep winning? With strong balance sheets, rising profitability, and structural tailwinds, European lenders still offer value despite short-term risks. Meanwhile, German…
