Canada’s October jobs report beat expectations, but underlying details suggest momentum remains fragile. Employment rose 66k after a 60.4k gain in September, while unemployment unexpectedly declined to 6.9% from 7.1%. The…
2025 has underscored widening policy and market divergence between the US and Canada, but Canadian yields still offer room for downside. The spread between the 2-year GoC yield and the overnight rate is less than 10 bps, compared…
Markets are increasingly pricing an end to the global easing cycle, with many central banks expected to remain on hold. But uncertainty remains high, and policy surprises are likely going into 2026. This Strategy Report breaks down…
Markets are increasingly pricing an end to the global easing cycle, with many central banks expected to remain on hold. But uncertainty remains high, and policy surprises are likely going into 2026. This Strategy Report breaks down…
The Bank of Canada cut the overnight rate by 25 bps to 2.25%, placing policy at the bottom of its neutral range while signaling patience ahead. Gov. Macklem highlighted the 100 bps of easing year-to-date, with 50 bps delivered over…
Canada’s Q3 Business Outlook Survey paints a weak macro picture with limited price pressures, supporting an overweight on CGBs and CAD 5s10s steepeners. The BOS Indicator ticked up marginally to -2.3 from -2.4, as low capacity…
Recent Canadian data confirm slowing growth, reinforcing support for government bonds and steepeners. The October CFIB Business Barometer fell to 46.3 from 50.2, indicating contraction and underscoring the risk posed by small…
In this Q4 Strategy Outlook, we discuss where we stand on our recession call, the outlook for stocks and bonds in various scenarios, why investors are misunderstanding the impact of AI on corporate profits, whether the US dollar has…
Trade concerns continue to weigh on Canada, reinforcing a cautious macro outlook with near term downside for bond yields and the CAD, though the currency selloff is getting stretched and could soon present an attractive entry point.…