アメリカ合衆国

The December US CPI came in better than expected. While headline CPI met estimates of 0.4% m/m (2.9% y/y), core surprised to the downside at 0.2% m/m, decelerating to 3.2% y/y from 3.3%. Moderation in core annual inflation was driven by both goods, which are…

1 年 1 年間 ago

Inflation Labor Market Services

FICC

The Upside Risks To Inflation

Our thoughts on this morning’s CPI release and some upside risks to inflation that could flare up in the months ahead.

1 年 1 年間 ago

Bonds US Gov Sovereigns/Treasurys

Essentials

Cool PPI Reassures Markets, But CPI Will Set The Tone

The December US Producer Price Index came in cooler than expected, increasing 0.2% m/m, a deceleration from 0.4% in November. Core PPI, excluding food and energy, was flat after increasing 0.2% a month prior.  Inflation is a lagging variable, as…

1 年 1 年間 ago

Consumer Manufacturing Inflation/Deflation

Essentials

NFIB: Keep Fading Post-Election Euphoria

The December NFIB Small Business Optimism Index beat expectations, jumping to 105.1 from 101.7 in November. Most index subcomponents increased, led by measure of expectations, notably for the state of the economy and real sales. After jumping 39 percentage…

1 年 1 年間 ago

US Labor Market Corporate Asset Allocation

Essentials

The US Stock Market Rally Is Running Out Of Fuel

Our Global Investment Strategy (GIS) team believes the US economy is not as strong as commonly believed, and that equity valuations offer little buffer given the risk of incoming macro shocks. The US economy is more fragile than it appears, with risks…

1 年 1 年間 ago

Economy Equities Inflation/Deflation

Equities

Sector Chart Pack: Will Rising Rates Break Equities?

In this first presentation of 2025, we start with an overview of the 2025 outlook webcast polls, and a brief post-mortem of the 2024 market performance. Then, we shift gears and examine what is behind the recent surge in bond yields and its implications for equities. We also review market technicals and positioning and conclude with a list of trades to prepare our portfolio for continued moves in yields.

1 年 1 年間 ago

US Equities Sectors Valuations

Essentials

Are Commodities Sending A Bullish Signal?

Despite a strong dollar, rising yields, and falling equities, oil and copper prices have recently risen. Oil has broken out above its 200-day moving average, while copper is currently testing its own.  Oil’s bullish price action is explained by…

1 年 1 年間 ago

Oil US Global

Essentials

Are Inflation Expectations Rising Again?

The preliminary January University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index missed estimates on Friday, driven by a cooling of consumer expectations. Worryingly, both the 1-year and 5-to-10 year inflation expectations ticked up to 3.3% from 2.8% and 3.0%,…

1 年 1 年間 ago

Inflation US Labor Market

Essentials

The Bond Market Riot Engulfs Europe

Our European Investment strategists looked at the developed markets bond selloff from a European perspective, focusing on Euro area and UK government bonds and currencies. The recent selloff in European bonds is driven primarily by surging US yields,…

1 年 1 年間 ago

Gov Sovereigns/Treasurys US Euro Area

Equities

Weekly Screeners: US Tech, Equity Sentiment, And Quality “Bubbles”?

To kick start our new research agenda at Equity Analyzer, we welcome you to our weekly screener report. Each week we will deliver three screeners highlighting stocks exposed to various macro and investment views and themes, that have either been suggested by various BCA strategies, such as the Global Investment Strategy, or are based on research by the Equity Analyzer team. In our first installment, we take a look at US Tech stocks, equity sentiment, and quality "bubble" stocks.

1 年 1 年間 ago

Equity Analyzer US Equities

アメリカ合衆国

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