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While consumer sentiment is rebounding, sticky inflation expectations and slowing growth warrant staying long duration and steepeners. The preliminary June University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index surprised to the upside, rising to 60.5 from 52.2.…
Further labor market deterioration would trigger a shift to maximum underweight in equities. While soft indicators have markedly deteriorated, hard labor data remains relatively resilient, though it has clearly weakened. The labor market is still in…
BCA’s Geopolitical strategists expect further bond market volatility as Congress advances the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” which will act as a new fiscal stimulus ahead of the midterms. They assign a 90% probability to the eventual passage of the OBBB which is…
Elevated inflation expectations are keeping the Fed sidelined, reinforcing our long-duration and steepener bias in US rates. The US May CPI would have normally supported cuts, but the Fed cannot risk elevated short-term inflation expectations feeding…
Colder May CPI reinforces our overweight in government bonds and tactical steepener trades as growth slows and the Fed stays cautious. Headline inflation rose 0.1% (2.4% y/y), below expectations, as did core CPI (2.8% y/y). Goods inflation was flat, and…
The US-China tariff deal confirms one thing: markets are still priced for perfection, with little upside even if a recession is dodged. The London negotiations yielded a partial agreement: The US will reduce tariffs, and China will remove export restrictions…
Our Commodity strategists see a breakdown of historical commodity correlations. The US dollar now shows a positive correlation with commodities, particularly energy, and a weaker dollar will no longer guarantee upside for commodity prices. Softening global…
While we anticipate higher inflation in June, it looks increasingly likely that the price impact from tariffs will be less aggressive and long-lasting than many feared.
Bond market volatility will spike again in the near term. The Fed is committed to an easing cycle yet the Trump administration’s signature fiscal policy action will stimulate the economy. Tariffs are supposed to keep the budget deficit contained but they are inflationary.
Small business confidence improved in May, but hiring intentions fell and activity remains sluggish, reinforcing our cautious equity stance. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to 98.8, beating expectations. However, most of the improvement came from…