Geopolitics

Markets may be bracing for April 2, but the real surprise could be how unsurprising it ends up being. Our Chart Of The Week comes from GeoMacro Chief Strategist Marko Papic, who sees the looming tariff salvo as the peak of de-globalization panic. With Beltway…

1 year ago

Global US Tariffs

GeoMacro

Geopolitical Outlook, Q2 2025

Stocks will continue to struggle in the second quarter as President Trump tries to implement tariffs. Tax cuts will only temporarily dispel growth fears, if at all. Middle Eastern instability will add oil price surprises to an environment that is looking fairly stagflationary.

1 year ago

Trump's Policies Fiscal Policy China

Essentials

Long Europe/Short US: Too Far, Too Fast

Our tactical framework highlights how financial conditions and economic surprises interact, where growth often sows the seeds of its own demise. Markets price expectations efficiently but lack perfect foresight, making data surprises key to price action.…

1 year ago

US Europe Economy

Essentials

An Unsustainable Europe/US Divergence

Our Chart Of The Week comes from Mathieu Savary, Chief Strategist of our European Investment Strategy service. Mathieu believes the recent outperformance of European over US risk assets is unlikely to last over the next 3-6 months. Markets are pricing in a…

1 year ago

Europe US Economy

GeoMacro

Understanding Trump's Foreign Policy

Trump’s foreign policy can be explained by rational US interests, but it requires settling the trade war with allies sooner rather than later. Book gains on EUR-USD for now.

1 year ago

Trump's Policies China

Essentials

A Key Risk For The Global Economy

Our Chart Of The Week comes from Arthur Budaghyan, Chief Emerging Markets/China strategist. Arthur highlights a key risk for the global economy, and its implication for the US dollar. By and large, the US economy has been the only source of global demand in…

1 year ago

US Globalization Geopolitics

Essentials

What Will Hold Trump Back?

In light of President Trump’s address to Congress and the ebb-and-flow of tariff announcements, our Geopolitical strategists assessed the constraints on the administration’s disruptive agenda. Trump’s ability to implement his agenda is strongest in early…

1 year ago

US Labor Market Geopolitics

GeoMacro

What Will Hold Trump Back?

Trump will pull back from the trade war when stocks approach bear market territory. He will not withdraw from NATO. Favor European stocks on fiscal policy.

1 year ago

Trump's Policies Tariffs

Essentials

Trump Chaos: Double Down On Defensives

Our Geopolitical strategists received a lot of client questions following rapid US political developments, and addressed them in their latest report. US policy uncertainty is spiking, driving global uncertainty higher. Tariff implementation in March and April…

1 year ago

US Geopolitics Trade Policy/Protectionism

GeoMacro

Trump Chaos: Double Down On Defensives

Our defensive strategy for 2025 is coming to fruition so we are re-initiating some of our defensive and risk-off trades. Tariff implementation, hurdles in the tax bill, and geopolitical shocks are materializing in the near term.

1 year ago

Trump's Policies Geopolitics

Geopolitics

Related Topics